“Global headwinds are growing” and Gulf economies must defend against them, warned the IMF’s regional director.
Energy prices are rising, central banks are raising interest rates to tackle historically high inflation and a worldwide slowdown is forecast.
“The economic sky is now filled with a gloomy prospect, therefore it's very important to protect economies from the headwinds that we are currently facing,” said Jihad Azour, the IMF Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department.
The IMF launched its latest regional economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa at an event in the UAE on Monday.
While Gulf countries have benefited from the increase in oil and gas prices, the reforms introduced in the last five years, helping to further diversify their economies, have also supported an increase in growth, Mr Azour told the Business Extra podcast.
There is no solution without a cost
“Going forward, what is important is to maintain economic management anchored into a medium term approach,” he said.
“On the fiscal [side] maintain the medium term fiscal frameworks, keep accumulating additional buffers and reduce the risk of procyclicality.”
The Gulf can accelerate the economic transformation through increased participation of the private sector, stepping up reforms, such as to do with the labour market and ease of doing business, which increase productivity, he said.
“2022 is a year where the region is still recovering well, where the level of growth is reaching 5 per cent, 5.2 per cent for oil exporters, 4.9 per cent for the oil importers … Next year, we expect growth to slow down,” said Mr Azour, a former finance minister of Lebanon.
A deceleration is unavoidable given the need to tame inflation.
“There is no solution without a cost,” said Mr Azour.
Food security remains an issue for most countries in the region, “not only the price of food but also the price of fertilisers, which is an important component of agricultural activities”, he said.
“This inflation is very much driven by food and commodity prices, and therefore it hurts socially. This is why it's very important to address it in order to alleviate the pressure on the low income people,” he said.
“Addressing it would require … tightening the monetary policy, which means increasing interest rates, making the financing conditions more challenging. And this will have an impact on growth,” he said.
The key is “the right mix of policies” and to mitigate the cost of those policies on the most vulnerable.
However, reducing inflation may take time.
“There is a lag between the decisions and their impact. And this lag could be between six months and one year — depends on the transmission mechanisms,” he said.
There are three critical factors to watch this year, said Mr Azour.
“The level of inflation that keeps growing and reached double digits for the third year in the row for several countries … [also] the financial conditions and … the nature of policies that governments will put in place in order to address the very shocks that the global economy is facing.”
Also, the IMF has identified “vulnerabilities coming from the Covid [pandemic] era, the level of informality went up and the level of unemployment went up, too”.
Egypt and Lebanon
Egypt and the International Monetary Fund last week reached a deal for a $3 billion loan.
Mr Azour said the “Egyptian economy has huge potential”.
“It needs to grow and structural reforms and revisiting the role and the size of the state will help this direction,” he said.
In September, the IMF said Lebanon was moving too slowly on reforms required to secure $3bn of assistance.
“Those measures will help address both state and financial sector issues [and] will also address the public finance sustainability. That is very much needed in order to maintain the level of public services,” said Mr Azour.
“More importantly, I think it's very crucial to put Lebanon back on track and restore both economic confidence [and] the capacity to address some of the acute problems that the Lebanese economy and society are facing currently.”
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Price, base: Dh315,000
Engine: 3.0-litre V6
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 335hp @ 5,000rpm
Torque: 500Nm @ 1,370rpm
Fuel economy 5.9L / 100km
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Indoor cricket World Cup:
Insportz, Dubai, September 16-23
UAE fixtures:
Men
Saturday, September 16 – 1.45pm, v New Zealand
Sunday, September 17 – 10.30am, v Australia; 3.45pm, v South Africa
Monday, September 18 – 2pm, v England; 7.15pm, v India
Tuesday, September 19 – 12.15pm, v Singapore; 5.30pm, v Sri Lanka
Thursday, September 21 – 2pm v Malaysia
Friday, September 22 – 3.30pm, semi-final
Saturday, September 23 – 3pm, grand final
Women
Saturday, September 16 – 5.15pm, v Australia
Sunday, September 17 – 2pm, v South Africa; 7.15pm, v New Zealand
Monday, September 18 – 5.30pm, v England
Tuesday, September 19 – 10.30am, v New Zealand; 3.45pm, v South Africa
Thursday, September 21 – 12.15pm, v Australia
Friday, September 22 – 1.30pm, semi-final
Saturday, September 23 – 1pm, grand final
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
SEMI-FINAL
Monterrey 1
Funes Mori (14)
Liverpool 2
Keita (11), Firmino (90 1)
HIJRA
Starring: Lamar Faden, Khairiah Nathmy, Nawaf Al-Dhufairy
Director: Shahad Ameen
Rating: 3/5
The Beach Bum
Director: Harmony Korine
Stars: Matthew McConaughey, Isla Fisher, Snoop Dogg
Two stars
T20 World Cup Qualifier fixtures
Tuesday, October 29
Qualifier one, 2.10pm – Netherlands v UAE
Qualifier two, 7.30pm – Namibia v Oman
Wednesday, October 30
Qualifier three, 2.10pm – Scotland v loser of qualifier one
Qualifier four, 7.30pm – Hong Kong v loser of qualifier two
Thursday, October 31
Fifth-place playoff, 2.10pm – winner of qualifier three v winner of qualifier four
Friday, November 1
Semi-final one, 2.10pm – Ireland v winner of qualifier one
Semi-final two, 7.30pm – PNG v winner of qualifier two
Saturday, November 2
Third-place playoff, 2.10pm
Final, 7.30pm
A timeline of the Historical Dictionary of the Arabic Language
- 2018: Formal work begins
- November 2021: First 17 volumes launched
- November 2022: Additional 19 volumes released
- October 2023: Another 31 volumes released
- November 2024: All 127 volumes completed
The Energy Research Centre
Founded 50 years ago as a nuclear research institute, scientists at the centre believed nuclear would be the “solution for everything”.
Although they still do, they discovered in 1955 that the Netherlands had a lot of natural gas. “We still had the idea that, by 2000, it would all be nuclear,” said Harm Jeeninga, director of business and programme development at the centre.
"In the 1990s, we found out about global warming so we focused on energy savings and tackling the greenhouse gas effect.”
The energy centre’s research focuses on biomass, energy efficiency, the environment, wind and solar, as well as energy engineering and socio-economic research.
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Turkish Ladies
Various artists, Sony Music Turkey
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
What is cyberbullying?
Cyberbullying or online bullying could take many forms such as sending unkind or rude messages to someone, socially isolating people from groups, sharing embarrassing pictures of them, or spreading rumors about them.
Cyberbullying can take place on various platforms such as messages, on social media, on group chats, or games.
Parents should watch out for behavioural changes in their children.
When children are being bullied they they may be feel embarrassed and isolated, so parents should watch out for signs of signs of depression and anxiety
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
